U.S. 2011 Employment Outlook: Nowhere to Go but Up, Right?

U.S. 2011 Employment Outlook: Nowhere to Go but Up, Right?

By Theresa Minton-Eversole (http://www.shrm.org/hrdisciplines/staffingmanagement/Articles/Pages/NowhereToGo.aspx)

U.S. employers report that they expect small staffing gains for the first quarter of 2011, according to the seasonally adjusted results of the latest Manpower Employment Outlook Survey, released Dec. 7, 2010, by Manpower Inc. The results are the most positive indication revealed in the survey since 2009 that post-recessionary hiring in the U.S. is on the rebound.

The quarterly report gathers data from nearly 64,000 employers across the globe. The latest survey reveals improved hiring expectations from 12 months earlier in 28 of 39 countries and territories, including the G7 countries, where hiring plans are stable or improved from the fourth quarter of 2010 and the same time in 2009. Meanwhile, in the U.S., the net employment outlook improves slightly from both three months ago and from this time in 2009.

Manpower’s net employment outlook is derived by taking the percentage of employers expecting an increase in hiring activity and subtracting from this the percentage of employers expecting a decrease in hiring activity.

Reporting the most optimistic hiring expectations since 2009, U.S. employers forecast small staffing gains for the first quarter of 2011. Specifically, this quarter’s survey reveals:

Five straight quarters of employment growth in the U.S.

Widespread stability: The percentage of employers planning to keep staff levels unchanged persists at unsurpassed levels; those in seven of the 13 industry sectors surveyed expect to remain relatively stable compared to the fourth quarter 2010.

The current outlook is still below the past decade’s average: Despite positive signals, the

Quarter 1 2011 outlook is nearly 5 percentage points below the average outlook from 2001 to 2010.

These results are similar to those released by the Society for Human Resource Management’s (SHRM) Leading Indicators of National Employment (LINE) report on Dec. 3, 2010. The LINE report examines four key areas: employers’ hiring expectations, new-hire compensation, difficulty in recruiting top-level talent, and job vacancies. It is based on a monthly survey of private-sector human resource professionals at more than 500 manufacturing and 500 service-sector companies, which make up more than 90 percent of the nation’s private-sector workers.

The LINE report revealed that in December 2010, the hiring rate is projected to be at or near a four-year high. “HR professionals are also saying they are finding it harder to locate the talent needed for key positions,” said Jennifer Schramm, GPHR, manager, SHRM workplace trends and forecasting. “This is another sign that at least for some types of in-demand high-skilled jobs, the market is improving.”

"Across nearly all geographies in the world, the confidence to do additional hiring is improving," said Manpower Inc. Chairman and CEO Jeff Joerres. "However, like the U.S., the lack of robust demand for products and services is creating a persistent level of uncertainty."

Of the more than 18,000 employers surveyed, 14 percent expect an increase in staff levels in their first-quarter 2011 hiring plans, while 10 percent expect a decrease in payrolls, resulting in a net outlook of 4 percent. When seasonally adjusted, the quarter’s outlook becomes 9 percent. Seventy-three percent of employers expect no change in their hiring plans, while 3 percent indicate they are undecided about their hiring intentions.

“The fact that hiring expectations are trending upward is an encouraging sign,” said Jonas Prising, Manpower president of the Americas. “This quarter’s survey responses paint a picture of a job market that is easing up, although not as quickly as anyone would like. We are still stuck in first gear, but the ongoing sector-wide improvement we have seen over [2010] suggests that the labor market is ready to shift to a higher gear in 2011.”

Employers in 11 of the 13 industry sectors surveyed have a positive outlook for the first quarter of 2011: Leisure & Hospitality (12 percent), Professional & Business Services (11 percent), Information (10 percent), Wholesale & Retail Trade (10 percent), Mining (6 percent), Durable Goods Manufacturing (6 percent), Nondurable Goods Manufacturing (6 percent), Education & Health Services (6 percent), Other Services (4 percent), Financial Activities (4 percent) and Transportation & Utilities (2 percent).

The January 2011 through March 2011outlook is negative in the Construction (-9 percent) industry, while Government hiring is expected to be flat. Employers in two industry sectors, Mining and Wholesale & Retail Trade, expect their hiring pace to decrease compared to the previous quarter, while those in three industry sectors—Information, Education & Health Services, and Leisure & Hospitality—expect to see staff levels picking up. Hiring plans are relatively stable in the remaining industry sectors.

Compared to 2009, employers in all four U.S. geographic regions surveyed also expect an increased pace of hiring. Employers in the Midwest and South have the most optimistic view, with a net outlook of 10 percent. The net outlook is 9 percent for employers in the Northeast and 7 percent for those in the West. When adjusted for seasonal variations, employers in the Northeast, Midwest and West expect a moderate increase in hiring compared to 2009; employers in the South expect a slight increase. Quarter-over-quarter employers in the West report the strongest growth in job prospects, with a 6-point increase.

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